Occam's Razor and Trump's virus response

Maybe it's time to apply Occam's Razor a little. When conflicting explanations or interpretations are presented for something, give weight to the simplest one. Let us consider the Federal government's hesitant and erratic response to the virus outbreak.
Context: the best possible response by our leaders would not have resulted in a trumpeting of praise for them. A well-contained virus presence would have been a low-key story in the media. The threat would have been solved or at least attacked in a manner preventing wide-scale tragedy. Not necessarily a huge story.
The government's job is to assess dangers and quickly act to minimize harm. If actions are taken to minimize airplane crashes, there are fewer crashes for the media to go and cover. Ah, the media doesn't go out to the airport to cover all the successful landings and takeoffs. Had our president overseen the ideal response with the "pandemic playbook" left for him, we might be on a steady path toward the kind of normality we are so desperate for.
The problem for our president, from his narrow perspective, is that prompt and firm action would have had the effect of causing a temporary scare. We do not appreciate hearing about a foreboding virus. We would not have wanted to make drastic compromises to our lifestyle, not even in the short term. Not even if we were to be persuaded that such a step was well-advised, sorry.
I remember Barack Obama once advising on a policy by saying we needed to "eat our peas." Did the Ebola threat ever materialize to the extent that could have been feared? No. How much do you remember about the Ebola threat? Seems now like rather a blip in the long scheme of news. That is how we want these health risks to end up.
And hardly anyone thinks of praising the Obama administration for the actions it took. Because, no real panic ever developed. Obama's usual critics continued their onslaught of brickbats. They found more ways to snarl than ever.
Hillary Clinton might have overseen the best possible response to the current virus phenomenon. Democrats are just wired that way, with a more basic sense of caring for people, attending to the intangibles. So, what are the "tangibles?" Glad you asked. Occam's Razor can be used to explain how Trump just wanted to avoid confronting the virus, or flail away when finally having to acknowledge it, by saying it might just go away. Which is what Republicans would want because it would not require the hassle or expense of government intervention.
Democrats by contrast believe that some expense is needed sometimes to just take care of people. Putting Trump under the Occam's Razor analysis, let's cite just one thing. After all, this is Occam's Razor, the idea that the explanation for many troubling things is right under our nose. We just need to calm down and not think so much. Stop thinking about things like the "grassy knoll" in connection to the JFK assassination, or the myriad other aspects in connection to that. Oswald acted alone.
So with Trump, what scared the excrement right out of him, was the specter of a stock market downturn, even a short-term one, as a result of an early warning to the nation about the virus. He was ready to spit on science. And he does that to this very moment as he refuses to work in concert with Dr. Fauci. Republicans have become averse to science, a trait that revealed itself previously with climate change. And now we see the likes of Trump expressing hope that the virus will simply go away. Oh, it's a wonderful thought.
I find myself on the defensive these days - just happened this morning in fact - as I try to advise people on the worst that can happen, and may well in fact be happening, with the virus. I must always tag on the after-thought "I hope I'm wrong" or "we can hope/pray it doesn't happen."
The Trump crowd thought it could wish away the bad stuff by just imploring us to "re-open." Yes, the hope was that we could magically bring our cherished routine back, and then - cross fingers - maybe the whole damn problem would go away, quit bothering us.
We are Americans and we are programmed to be optimistic. For two or three decades now we have come to believe the stock market basically only goes up. Or, if it does plunge for some reason - consider the 2008 financial crisis - well, it gets back on its feet pretty routinely.
People in the know are aware our economy is more fragile than the mass public believes. Trump gives speeches now indicating the economy was streaking to the stratosphere before the cotton pickin' virus came along. Strange. We had three straight interest rate cuts before the pandemic struck. The pandemic just caused another full-point drop, and is this the kind of thing that is supposed to happen when everything is coming up roses with the economy? Well, no.
Trump has openly banked on a continuing upbeat stock market as his absolute ticket for getting re-elected. And, why the desperation for getting re-elected? Look at all his associates getting in trouble with the law. Now Roger Stone gets his sentence commuted. The most outspoken Republican critic of that move has been Mitt Romney.
I actually feel Romney as president would have done the right thing when the pandemic first reared its ugly head. He may subscribe to most of what his party stands for, at least in the pre-Trump times, but as with Ronald Reagan, I see more than a flash of genuineness and caring in the man. It's like he's the designated sensible Republican now, as if most of his brethren have gone raving mad. And just think of all the pain and death spreading because of the virus on the loose.
With so many of Trump's associates now revealed to be so crooked, are we to believe that Trump is really the pure outlier? Look up "Pollyannish" in the dictionary.

Whither our Morris community?
Do we in Morris really want something like 1500 college kids moving in to our community next month, coming here from all over, like maybe from communities that have meat-packing facilities? Can we accept seeing a portion of our senior population literally die? For the sake of these kids getting liberal arts studies?
Hate to sound harsh but we're talking life and death. Excuse me if that jars you.
If Obama were president, he might smile and say we'll all have to become vegetarians for a while. And that would cause all the red-staters among us, here in this red 7th Congressional District, to get hair on fire. Can you imagine? Obama would say it's like "eating our peas." You can stay optimally healthy with a modicum of planning and adjusting, when cutting meat from your diet.
Some people might say "I'd rather die" (than to become a tree-hugger) but I don't think they'd mean it. Try a veggie burger. I personally eat meat because I've been too lazy to adjust my lifestyle. Had bacon this morning. Trump used the Defense Production Act in an odd move to force meat-packing facilities to stay up and running. He probably figures you have to eat meat to be an American. Employees at these places are sitting ducks for the virus. And of course they can spread it, just like all the kids who might be returning to school in the fall.
But will we really see regular school in the fall? We continue to be in the "suspended animation" of summer, in position to delay the reckoning on a lot of things. It's still July. Yes, we hope the virus will fade as if by magic. What could be better? But unlike Trump we should not bank on this mere hope.
Occam's Razor in connection to Trump: his inattentiveness and fear of truly deploying the Federal government and its immense resources was due to. . .fear of a jolt to the stock market, which yes might have happened. Markets are supposed to go both up and down if they are functioning properly. At present they are not, because of unprecedented activism by the Federal Reserve. We can hope and pray, Trump-style, that the Fed's actions will be more good than bad. But what if we get hyper-inflation? Then we're on a definite path toward 1930s Germany, even more than we are now.
A dip in the stock market? Trump was scared to death of that. And so there was foot-dragging. And then when we couldn't ignore it any more, he sought to point fingers all around. And will we buy it? In the Seventh Congressional District, maybe yes. Heaven help us all.
 
Addendum: Did you get the new flyer from that Republican 7th District Congressional candidate? Includes photo of incumbent Collin Peterson with Nancy Pelosi. Horrors! The guy probably feels this could be the kiss of death for the incumbent: posing with Nancy Pelosi. I'm inclined to agree with Bill Maher who used Occam's Razor in commenting on the House Speaker: "What's wrong with Nancy Pelosi?"
 
Visit my podcast: My "Morris Mojo" podcast has an entry for today, July 11, in which I remember the title of a Doris Kearns-Goodwin book. The title is "No Ordinary Time." The author had some IP (intellectual property) problems so I reflect on that, then I move on to the continuing question of what life is going to look like for all of us come fall. After all, it's "no ordinary time." Please listen with permalink below:
https://anchor.fm/brian-williams596/episodes/No-ordinary-time-egk1c5
 
- Brian Williams - morris mn minnesota - bwilly73@yahoo.com