"You'll never get ahead if you don't take care of what you have." - Doris Waddell, RIP

The late Ralph E. Williams with "Heidi" - morris mn

The late Ralph E. Williams with "Heidi" - morris mn
Click on the image to read Williams family reflections w/ emphasis on UMM.

Saturday, August 24, 2024

Again, the "heroin" of low interest rates

(image from youtube)
Quantitative easing, again? It happens so regularly: the absolute drumbeat from high places saying we need lower interest rates, rock-bottom interest rates. The lower the better. Is this always the universal fix? The impatience is, well, palpable. 
The voices have been ever so strident over the past week or two. Jerome Powell of the Federal Reserve is having his arm absolutely twisted. How firm or resolved is Mr. Powell? That is a good question because he only recently talked like he was the absolute caretaker of the U.S. I mean, he actually talked about how inflation hurts the poor and middle class. What a benevolent soul. But then the arm-twisting takes over. Billionaires and their ilk absolutely salivate over rock-bottom interest rates. 
We hear J.D. Vance characterized as a "Wall Street investor" as if this is his defining feature. So we're looking to him to help lead the way for creating prosperity? Well, he definitely will help create increased prosperity for the well-off. And Kevin O'Leary trumpets that "there's nothing wrong with being rich." He too purports to be leader or example-setter for us all. I looked him up and he's "Canadian." 
Piers Morgan gets quoted prominently and he's certainly not American. He's really an entertainer. And doesn't O'Leary oversee "Shark Tank?" Is being on TV your ticket to being a widely-quoted VIP? Really? And how did Donald Trump get his name established? Through the entertainment media and television, right? We are being led along by such folks. 
And no one should think there is "anything wrong" with being rich. How do we define "rich?" AOC has said "no one needs to be a billionaire." Stop and think about how much a billion dollars really is. 
Jerome Powell has absolutely telegraphed an interest rate cut at the next meeting for such things. He sounded so resolute yesterday (Friday) that I wondered why the Fed didn't call an emergency meeting. After all, the Wall Street heavy-hitters are waiting for their next heroin injection. 
And we the common people just observe this with nary a questioning eye. 
Vance didn't need much if any talent to do well in the investing community, not over the recent past when interest rates have on the whole been incredibly low. He could ride the wave with his fellow Scrooge McDucks. 
You have a 401K? So maybe you're receptive to the whole scenario: lower interest rates signal stock market erupting to wildly higher heights. Is prosperity that simple? There is no free lunch. "Free money" does not just create unbounded happiness for all. 
Most commentators are now foreseeing a whole succession of interest rate cuts, extending through not only 2025 but 2026 as well. Some experts are trying to ring warning bells, like for example an "inflation spike" as early as January. Should this be concerning? We have seen plenty of inflation in contemporary times. I have been very surprised to not hear more concern voiced about it. 
Paul Volcker
The USA once had to put Paul Volcker to work attacking inflation, pulling it out by its roots as if it was nasty weeds. He guaranteed us a recession. We got it. Surprisingly Americans got through it all in a happy state. I mean, just look at the popular entertainment we consumed through the 1970s. Aha, "Laverne and Shirley." Anti-intellectual fare yes but also fun. 
Today we have the Internet as a foundation to our lives. Generally speaking the Internet is a meritocracy. But I am surprised that more voices aren't breaking through to warn us about what another wave of "QE" might do. Will inflation come along and "break the camel's back?" 
The Roman Empire collapsed because of inflation. Inflation of Germany's Wiemar Republic led to the rise of the Nazis. Panic sets in and then people look for a "wallpaper hanger." That was Hitler in Germany. And right now in America, who do you suppose looms as Hitler redux? Who has all the qualities? Well of course it's Trump who stays so incredibly prominent in our national conversation despite his notorious and criminal background. We just don't seem to care. 
Many people now are assuming that the Democrats with Harris at the fore guarantee the end of Trump-ism as a national threat. It absolutely does not. Trump hovers as much as ever with his new partner Vance, he of the Wall Street rarefied air world where everything comes up roses due to rock-bottom interest rates. 
Jerome Powell is not subtle. He is quite up front in suggesting that the Fed is going to satisfy the restless interests of the investors, the billionaires. They have made known to this thing called "the Fed" that they are desperate for the heroin of quantitative easing. And isn't it certain they'll get it? You know how money talks, right? 
You get attention when you have money or if you give it away. Any organization will fawn over you like you're a total VIP if you give them some money. I hope and pray that the day will come when we in America will see there has to be some nuance with this, some reasonable perspective. 
There is no free lunch. Reject the heroin. You'll have to persuade J.D. Vance and Doug Burgum about all this, of course. It may be impossible. Heaven help us.
 
On to basketball
What a day in Minnesota! It's Saturday and a marquee day for the hoops sport 'cause Caitlin Clark will be here. Game-time is 7 p.m. from Target Center. I quote here from an email I sent to my fellow UMM advocate Warrenn Anderson this morning.
 
"CC"
Hello Warrenn - Well it's Caitlin Clark day in Minnesota. She has been so incredibly refreshing on the national stage, and usually when someone gets that famous we start to learn about their human failings. This has not happened with Caitlin yet, and maybe that amazes me more than anything. She just seems "perfect" all the way around.
I heard very interesting commentary on women's basketball this past week. It registered with me because I have noticed the same thing. The women's basketball players of today are more feminine-appearing than in past times. The commentator said the players of today are "snow bunnies," not "dikes." I have seen a fair number of the latter through the years. But look at Lexie Hull of the Indiana Fever. Fit for magazine covers. There are many others. Cameron Brink is a looker. Caitlin ranks high on that scale herself. Like I said, she's perfect.

- Brian W.

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